For several months people have told me the Bradley/Wilder effect may confound pollsters and diminish Barack Obama's election day results by 8-9 percent. The theory is that, in 1982, Tom Bradley was defeated in his poll-favored bid for governor of California because voters told pollsters they would vote for him, but with curtain drawn in the voting both could not pull the lever for an African American.
Likewise in 1989, polls heavily favored Doug Wilder for governor of Virginia, yet he eked out only a .4 percent win. There is a debate whether the Bradley effect continues to exist, and whether Obama, a "transformational figure," has transcended race.
"Transformational figure" is in quotes because it is the grandiose appellation given Obama by arguably the most experienced, most qualified, most presidential African-American: Colin Powell.
In his recent endorsement, Powell describes an Obama victory with grandiloquence: "It will also not only electrify the country, it will electrify the world." Wow. According to Powell, Obama has both "style and substance," a leader who would use the "power of his rhetoric" to communicate successfully with our friends and enemies around the world.
In his remarks on Meet The Press, Powell described the disagreement that made him chafe for years: The Republican Party has moved to the right. He worries about conservative Supreme Court justices and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin for VP.
Powell is a soft Republican, not an exponent of the conservative or neo-conservative movement; still, his endorsement is a shock to conservatives and awesome for Obama.
When I heard about the Bradley effect, I responded hogwash! Americans would happily vote for an African-American with the proper credentials and ability, such as Colin Powell. Of course, it is not the race of the candidate that matters, but his character, experience and vision. That remains true today, with one new development: The eminent Gen. Powell bought into the Obama rhetoric, practically raising him onto Oprah's pedestal: "The One."
Just in case you thought Republicans have capitulated -- not a chance. Obama's sweet rhetoric may charm Powell and half the nation, but the rest of us consider it saccharine.
Impressed as we are by his legerdemain, we will stand by the conservative principles espoused by our salt-of-the-earth candidates, and it ain't over until the Alaskan lady sings.
America's love affair with Gov. Sarah Palin continues unabated. Of course, not all America, she has her detractors, but none was present at the Chaifetz Arena on debate night. The Republicans held a rally and debate-watching party at the beautiful new SLU arena, which culminated with a visit from the VP candidate herself.
The Party faithful in attendance cheered Palin's folksy and cheerful demeanor as she hammered home core conservative beliefs and criticized the mainstream media. You betcha.
This is one night the Republicans had more fun than the Democrats, as Sen. Biden did not attend theDemocratic rally at The Pageant due to his soldier son's imminent departure for Iraq. Usually theDemocrats have much more exciting parties, or that's what I have heard.
Even if he had been able to attend, Biden is no party starter. Obama has been packing rooms for almost two years.
Why is it that certain media anchors are fixated on portraying successful Republicans as morons? Think of the precedents -- Reagan, Quayle, Bush, Palin. Is charging vacuity really the best angle of attack? Does it really matter if the VP candidate knows the name of the President of Zimbabwe, and how US policy should evolve toward that country?
By the way, it's Mugabe: bad guy, regime change would be good.
No, you do not become president of the United States, or even a vice-presidential nominee, being obtuse. Sure Dan Quayle misspelled potato, sure W and Sarah say "nucular," but that's OK, people have different accents, and we should all be tolerant, right?
Now the scary part: Palin's perky enthusiasm is an eerie echo of Ronald Reagan's optimism and affability. In a precarious season of financial tumult and political polemics, could it be morning in America, again?